As Central Oregon enters the heart of spring, fire officials and national forecasters are issuing stark warnings about what the 2026 wildfire season could look like — and the outlook is not encouraging.
AccuWeather released its 2026 wildfire season forecast over the weekend, projecting that while the total number of fires nationwide may be slightly lower than 2025, individual fires are likely to spread faster and grow larger before crews can contain them. Nationally, forecasters expect between 65,000 and 80,000 wildfires burning an estimated 5.5 to 8 million acres — potentially 57% more acreage than the 5.1 million burned in 2025.
Oregon's Historic Snow Drought
Oregon is particularly vulnerable this year. State climatologist Larry O'Neill described the 2025–26 winter as having "no historical equivalent" when it comes to snow drought, with statewide snowpack sitting at roughly one-third of normal levels heading into fire season. Oregon also tied records for its warmest winter since the 1890s.
"As far as we can tell, there is no historical equivalent — it was slightly worse than all the other big snow drought years we've had," O'Neill said.
That near-absence of snowmelt means less soil moisture, drier vegetation, and an earlier start to the season when conditions favor rapid fire spread.
Fires Already Burning in Central Oregon
The 2026 fire season is already underway in Central Oregon. The Pine Mountain Fire, which ignited May 7 near Bend after a prescribed burn escaped containment, burned 2,589 acres before being 100% contained on May 12. The Trout Creek Fire near Sisters broke out May 3 and was also fully contained.
Fire officials say both early-season fires underscore how quickly conditions can escalate this year.
Jefferson County Burn Restrictions
Jefferson County announced summer burning restrictions effective May 4, 2026. Under those restrictions:
- Open burning is only allowed in approved burn barrels with screens and a valid permit
- Permitted burning hours are sunrise to 10:00 a.m. daily
- No burning of any kind is allowed in elevated fire danger conditions
Residents with questions about current restrictions can contact the Jefferson County Sheriff's Office or check with the Oregon Department of Forestry's Central Oregon District.
What You Can Do
Fire officials recommend that property owners use the next few weeks — before conditions become truly critical — to create defensible space around structures, clear dead vegetation and debris, and ensure address markers are visible from the road for emergency responders. The National Fire Protection Association's "Ready, Set, Go!" program offers free resources at nfpa.org.
Current fire weather information and spot forecasts are available through the National Weather Service office in Pendleton at weather.gov/pdt.