May 2026 is shaping up to be warmer and drier than average across Central Oregon, with conditions that have already prompted early-season fire restrictions and a public preparedness push from fire officials in Jefferson County and the surrounding region.

Current Conditions

Madras and the surrounding high desert plateau are experiencing typical spring variability this week, with daytime highs ranging from the low 60s to upper 60s Fahrenheit and overnight lows dipping into the 30s and 40s. Winds have been a notable factor, with dry, gusty afternoons accelerating the drying of grasses and brush that serve as fire fuel.

The National Weather Service's latest 7-day forecast for the Central Oregon region shows a continued pattern of mild days with little to no precipitation expected through mid-May. At approximately 2,200 feet in elevation, Madras typically runs several degrees warmer and drier than Bend or Redmond during spring and summer months.

El Nino Transition Signals a Hot Summer Ahead

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a transition to El Nino conditions during the May-July 2026 period, which historically correlates with warmer and drier summers across the Pacific Northwest and Central Oregon. Oregon's seasonal climate forecast, issued in mid-April, noted elevated probability of above-normal temperatures through July.

For Jefferson County's ranchers, farmers, and outdoor enthusiasts, that forecast is already influencing planning. Irrigators are watching reservoir levels closely, while fire agencies are warning that the 2026 fire season could arrive earlier and burn more aggressively than recent years.

Burn Restrictions Already in Effect

Jefferson County Fire and EMS moved quickly this spring. As of May 4, summer burn restrictions are in effect countywide:

  • Open burning is permitted only in approved burn barrels with spark screens and a valid permit
  • Burning hours are restricted to sunrise through 10:00 a.m. daily
  • Field burning and debris piles are prohibited until conditions change

Jefferson County Code normally triggers Moderate (Blue) fire danger beginning July 1, but officials implemented the designation early due to drying conditions and forecasted weather.

Wildfire Preparedness Fair: May 20

Jefferson County Fire and EMS is hosting a free Wildfire Preparedness Fair on Wednesday, May 20, from 5 to 7 p.m. at the Jefferson County Fire and EMS station. Residents can learn about defensible space, go-bag preparation, evacuation planning, and mitigation strategies to reduce risk to their homes and properties.

Information is available at centraloregonfire.org. Fire officials encourage all Jefferson County households -- especially those in the wildland-urban interface -- to attend and make a preparedness plan before fire season peaks.

Outlook for the Rest of May

Residents can expect continued mild to warm conditions through late May, with daytime temperatures gradually climbing toward the 70s. Overnight frost remains possible through mid-May at higher elevations. Gardeners in the Madras area typically wait until Memorial Day weekend to safely plant frost-sensitive crops.